When you're bored, even If I don't know if I'll watch the endless hollywood-patting-itself-on-the-back ceremony. Predictions...
Best Picture: The Artist
It's got the momentum, the nostalgia, most of the top awards and the international flavor, it certainly seems like the overwhelming favorite, but there's always the possibility of a dark horse upset. Could it be "Hugo", which has the most nominations and also lovingly remembers the earliest days of cinema? Or how about a real far-off dark horse like "The Help", which was no favorite of the taste-makers but seems to be the top choice both among the general moviegoing audience as well as the Screen Actor's Guild. The win could rival "Chariots of Fire" and "Crash" as the biggest oscar upset yet, but it's still a lonnnng shot.
Best Director: Terrence Malick- The Tree of Life
I would just like to see the academy's reaction after his named is called. Martin Scorsese and DGA winner Michel Hazanavicius are the more likely winners.
Best Actor: George Clooney- The Descendants
Hollywood loves it's top movie stars so it seems likely that they'll crown Mr. Clooney for his well-recieved turn here, though an Artist sweep could pull of an upset for lightning-rod first-timer Jean Dujardin.
Best Actress: Viola Davis- The Help
She's got the backing of the actors, the film's success and (although it's unfair to Davis to say this) the diversity angle that will give Davis the edge here over perennial titan Meryl Streep, though the latter is just as likely to take home an oscar tonight.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer- Begginers
70 plus titans rule this category, and 81-year-old Plummer is the favorite for his warm turn in Begginers. Max Von Syndow and Nick Nolte are unlikely contenders for an upset.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer- The Help
Another likely Help victory for well-liked journeywoman Spencer, over her busy "Help" co-star Jessica Chaistain and funnywoman Mellisa McCarthy ("Bridesmaids"). Again, though, an Artist sweep could give novice nominee Berenice Bejo an upset victory.
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris- Woody Allen
They have to give something to Woody, even if he's unlikely to show up. The Artist is also a possibility.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball- Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zallian, Stan Charvin
Sorkin won last year, but this seems the best way to honor underdog Moneyball. The Descendants has the best chance of an upset, with its WGA win, and will probably win if Clooney is denied the best actor trophy with Academy's spread-the-wealth mentality.
Best Foreign-Language Film: A Seperation
These categories are impossible to read, so I'll go with the most heralded, but an upset is always possible (think "Pan's Labyrinth")
Best Documentary: Pina
Who knows? The best we're declared ineligible, so this is more of a "who cares" category.
Best Animated Feature: Chico and Rita
Not a banner year for feature-length animated features, and with even Pixar releasing a dud there's a possibility for the spanish production "Rita".
Techs
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Cinematography: The Artist (sorry, Lubezeki)
Best Costume Design: Hugo
Best Editing: The Artist
Best Makeup: Albert Nobbs
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: The Muppets
Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
Best Sound Editing: Drive (hey, why not)
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Basically, expect some possible provacation from Sacha Baron Cohen, funny but not particulary spicy jokes from Billy Crystal and an overlong ceremony that continues to remind us of the whole thing's irrelevance. Essentialy a lukewarm cocktail from the well that we regret the next morning but keep having anyway. I think I might celebrate the night by watching "Drive" again.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Oscar Nominations
The Artist and Hugo recieved the most Academy Awards nominations this morning (including ones for best picture), perhaps crowning them the likely favorites for Best Picture and more at this year's academy awards. While this year might not be quite as head-turning as the last (when the many acclodes for The Social Network went for naught, and when they thought it would be a good idea for Anne Hathaway and James Franco to host the awards in perhaps the Academy's most unbearable attempt yet at trying to reach a youthful audience), the nominations seemed to give off a no-clear-direction stance and at least brings some suspense to the Awards, if only superficially. Rounding out the best picture nominees were The Descendants, The Help, Moneyball, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse, Midnight in Paris and Tree of Life. The best picture nominating process was altered this year (again), with the rules changing that instead of ten automatic nominations, a film had to recieve five percent of academy members first place votes. The odd thing is many of the films that have that passionate fanbase that would seem to make the list were nowhere to be seen, with edgier fare like Drive and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, or the popular Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and especially Bridesmaids left off the shortlist. At first it seemed the academy changed the best picture rules to include more popular films in a half-hearted attempt to bring in more viewers, though apparently now they don't want to seem like they're just "automatically" bringing in ten movies. Whatever.
Acting nominees we're more suprising for their snubs then for the nods. George Clooney and Brad Pitt we're nominated for best actor at the surprise of no one, setting up the race of the mega a-listers for that award, along with the Artist's Jean Dujardin, Tinker Tailor's Gary Oldman and surprise SAG nominee Demain Bicher for the little seen A Better Life. Micheal Fassbender was perhaps the most noticeable snub, perhaps the Academy was just not willing to sit through the NC-17 Shame. Ryan Gosling may have had vote splitting problems or perhaps the Academy just didn't like his films, and Take Shelter was probably too small (and too bleak) for Micheal Shannon to get recognized here. The most popular face not mentioned here was little Leo, but there was little support for J Edgar despite Clint's signature.
Best Actress looked pretty sown up right from the SAG nods, but Lisbeth #2 Rooney Mara managed to swoop in where Noomi couldn't and get a semi-surprising nod, knocking out SAG nominee and previous winner Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin, perhaps a film that didn't have enough screeners to send out. Elizabeth Olsen was always a remote possibility and didn't make it in here, and previous winner Charlize was also nowhere to be seen. Of course Meryl Streep got in (for "the Iron Lady"), likely going up against highly respected Viola Davis ("The Help). Michelle Williams ("My Week with Marilyn") and Glenn Close ("Albert Nobbs") we're also nominated.
Best Supporting Actor is where some may get angry, though there's no reason to take the snubs as a referendum on their work (they just didn't get enough votes). This category had a heavy veteran tilt, with Max Von Syndow ("Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"), Nick (F@#$en!) Nolte ("The Warrior") and Christopher Plummer ("Begginers") all getting nominations, all actors over the age of 70. Kenneth Branagh also got a nod (for "My Week with Marilyn") and 28-year-old Jonah Hill seemed to be the youth representive with his nod for "Moneyball". But where was Albert Brooks, who was sweeping through the critics awards with his performance in "Drive"? Academy definitely seemed lukewarm towards that love-it-or-hate-it, american-but-not-really modern-noir flick. And underdog favorite Patton Oswalt was also left out, as was everybody else, for "Young Adult". That leaves Christopher Plummer as the overwhelming favorite for the win.
Best Supporting Actress seems to be the most open-ended race (well, next to best picture), with shooting star Jessica Chaistain ("The Help") going up against Octavia Spencer ("The Help"), Berenice Bejo ("The Artist"), Mellisa McCarthy ("Bridesmaids") and Janet McTeer ("Albert Nobbs"). The only big surprise snub was young Shaillene Woodley, perhaps signifying that "The Descendants", which back upon it's release was being touted as the favorite to win it all, is now an also-ran. Not quite a Paul Giammatti snub (and no nod for him either), but a deserving contender.
The Artist, Midnight in Paris and Bridesmaids got their expected best original screenplay nods, while Margin Call and the much-buzzed A Seperation managed to sneak in at the eleventh-hour. Aaron Sorkin might be looking at back-to-back wins, with "Moneyball" the likely best Adapted screenplay favorite, going up against The Descendants, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Ides of March.
Now best director is where it turns interesting. As wide open as best picture, it all depends if the academy is feeling like giving a career-achievement style award or going for a relative unknown, like they did last year when they gave it to Tom Hooper over supposed favorite David Fincher. Terrence Malick is a possibility for the former, despite no DGA nod, and Michel Hanazavicius would benefit the latter. Or could Martin Scorsese win again? All depends on who's the likely favorite for best picture. Alexander Payne ("The Descendants") and Woody Allen ("Midnight in Paris") are remote possibilities for a win.
Best documentary was surprising devoid of all the well-known supposed favorites ("Project Nim", "Buck", "Tabloid", "Cave of Forgotten Dreams"), and Best Animated Feature went small again, leaving out "Cars 2" and "Tintin" for the foreign-produced "A Cat in Paris" (knew it) and "Chico and Rita". Best foreign-language film looks like "A Seperation" all the way (though just like "Pan's Labyrinth" inevitability?). Hugo and The Artist dominated the technical design categories, and whoever wins the most will likely be the best picture favorite (unless Malick or the emerging dark horse "The Help" pull of a major upset).
So what do we take from these nominations? Just kind of a pfft. Nothing too radical or particulary un-academy-like got nominated, and perhaps the Oscars shot themselves in the foot by leaving out popular films like Bridesmaids and the Harry Potter conclusion (so sorry, Alan Rickman, for no nomination yet again) from best picture. This year didn't provide a kind of ultimate critics darling that swept the early awards, unlike "The Social Network" last year. When that very modern, cynical piece of work lost handily to the very old-fashioned and very oscar-friendly "King's Speech", there were plenty of cries of Academy's lost relevance (a hardly revelatory accusation). If this year's nominations don't give a whole lot to be excited about, any losses on Oscar night probably won't upset too many people. In other words, expect another uninspiring awards show, though Billy Crystal might be able to perk it up, unless his acts shows signs of age.
Full list of nominations on www.imdb.com
Acting nominees we're more suprising for their snubs then for the nods. George Clooney and Brad Pitt we're nominated for best actor at the surprise of no one, setting up the race of the mega a-listers for that award, along with the Artist's Jean Dujardin, Tinker Tailor's Gary Oldman and surprise SAG nominee Demain Bicher for the little seen A Better Life. Micheal Fassbender was perhaps the most noticeable snub, perhaps the Academy was just not willing to sit through the NC-17 Shame. Ryan Gosling may have had vote splitting problems or perhaps the Academy just didn't like his films, and Take Shelter was probably too small (and too bleak) for Micheal Shannon to get recognized here. The most popular face not mentioned here was little Leo, but there was little support for J Edgar despite Clint's signature.
Best Actress looked pretty sown up right from the SAG nods, but Lisbeth #2 Rooney Mara managed to swoop in where Noomi couldn't and get a semi-surprising nod, knocking out SAG nominee and previous winner Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin, perhaps a film that didn't have enough screeners to send out. Elizabeth Olsen was always a remote possibility and didn't make it in here, and previous winner Charlize was also nowhere to be seen. Of course Meryl Streep got in (for "the Iron Lady"), likely going up against highly respected Viola Davis ("The Help). Michelle Williams ("My Week with Marilyn") and Glenn Close ("Albert Nobbs") we're also nominated.
Best Supporting Actor is where some may get angry, though there's no reason to take the snubs as a referendum on their work (they just didn't get enough votes). This category had a heavy veteran tilt, with Max Von Syndow ("Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"), Nick (F@#$en!) Nolte ("The Warrior") and Christopher Plummer ("Begginers") all getting nominations, all actors over the age of 70. Kenneth Branagh also got a nod (for "My Week with Marilyn") and 28-year-old Jonah Hill seemed to be the youth representive with his nod for "Moneyball". But where was Albert Brooks, who was sweeping through the critics awards with his performance in "Drive"? Academy definitely seemed lukewarm towards that love-it-or-hate-it, american-but-not-really modern-noir flick. And underdog favorite Patton Oswalt was also left out, as was everybody else, for "Young Adult". That leaves Christopher Plummer as the overwhelming favorite for the win.
Best Supporting Actress seems to be the most open-ended race (well, next to best picture), with shooting star Jessica Chaistain ("The Help") going up against Octavia Spencer ("The Help"), Berenice Bejo ("The Artist"), Mellisa McCarthy ("Bridesmaids") and Janet McTeer ("Albert Nobbs"). The only big surprise snub was young Shaillene Woodley, perhaps signifying that "The Descendants", which back upon it's release was being touted as the favorite to win it all, is now an also-ran. Not quite a Paul Giammatti snub (and no nod for him either), but a deserving contender.
The Artist, Midnight in Paris and Bridesmaids got their expected best original screenplay nods, while Margin Call and the much-buzzed A Seperation managed to sneak in at the eleventh-hour. Aaron Sorkin might be looking at back-to-back wins, with "Moneyball" the likely best Adapted screenplay favorite, going up against The Descendants, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Ides of March.
Now best director is where it turns interesting. As wide open as best picture, it all depends if the academy is feeling like giving a career-achievement style award or going for a relative unknown, like they did last year when they gave it to Tom Hooper over supposed favorite David Fincher. Terrence Malick is a possibility for the former, despite no DGA nod, and Michel Hanazavicius would benefit the latter. Or could Martin Scorsese win again? All depends on who's the likely favorite for best picture. Alexander Payne ("The Descendants") and Woody Allen ("Midnight in Paris") are remote possibilities for a win.
Best documentary was surprising devoid of all the well-known supposed favorites ("Project Nim", "Buck", "Tabloid", "Cave of Forgotten Dreams"), and Best Animated Feature went small again, leaving out "Cars 2" and "Tintin" for the foreign-produced "A Cat in Paris" (knew it) and "Chico and Rita". Best foreign-language film looks like "A Seperation" all the way (though just like "Pan's Labyrinth" inevitability?). Hugo and The Artist dominated the technical design categories, and whoever wins the most will likely be the best picture favorite (unless Malick or the emerging dark horse "The Help" pull of a major upset).
So what do we take from these nominations? Just kind of a pfft. Nothing too radical or particulary un-academy-like got nominated, and perhaps the Oscars shot themselves in the foot by leaving out popular films like Bridesmaids and the Harry Potter conclusion (so sorry, Alan Rickman, for no nomination yet again) from best picture. This year didn't provide a kind of ultimate critics darling that swept the early awards, unlike "The Social Network" last year. When that very modern, cynical piece of work lost handily to the very old-fashioned and very oscar-friendly "King's Speech", there were plenty of cries of Academy's lost relevance (a hardly revelatory accusation). If this year's nominations don't give a whole lot to be excited about, any losses on Oscar night probably won't upset too many people. In other words, expect another uninspiring awards show, though Billy Crystal might be able to perk it up, unless his acts shows signs of age.
Full list of nominations on www.imdb.com
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