When you're bored, even If I don't know if I'll watch the endless hollywood-patting-itself-on-the-back ceremony. Predictions...
Best Picture: The Artist
It's got the momentum, the nostalgia, most of the top awards and the international flavor, it certainly seems like the overwhelming favorite, but there's always the possibility of a dark horse upset. Could it be "Hugo", which has the most nominations and also lovingly remembers the earliest days of cinema? Or how about a real far-off dark horse like "The Help", which was no favorite of the taste-makers but seems to be the top choice both among the general moviegoing audience as well as the Screen Actor's Guild. The win could rival "Chariots of Fire" and "Crash" as the biggest oscar upset yet, but it's still a lonnnng shot.
Best Director: Terrence Malick- The Tree of Life
I would just like to see the academy's reaction after his named is called. Martin Scorsese and DGA winner Michel Hazanavicius are the more likely winners.
Best Actor: George Clooney- The Descendants
Hollywood loves it's top movie stars so it seems likely that they'll crown Mr. Clooney for his well-recieved turn here, though an Artist sweep could pull of an upset for lightning-rod first-timer Jean Dujardin.
Best Actress: Viola Davis- The Help
She's got the backing of the actors, the film's success and (although it's unfair to Davis to say this) the diversity angle that will give Davis the edge here over perennial titan Meryl Streep, though the latter is just as likely to take home an oscar tonight.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer- Begginers
70 plus titans rule this category, and 81-year-old Plummer is the favorite for his warm turn in Begginers. Max Von Syndow and Nick Nolte are unlikely contenders for an upset.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer- The Help
Another likely Help victory for well-liked journeywoman Spencer, over her busy "Help" co-star Jessica Chaistain and funnywoman Mellisa McCarthy ("Bridesmaids"). Again, though, an Artist sweep could give novice nominee Berenice Bejo an upset victory.
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris- Woody Allen
They have to give something to Woody, even if he's unlikely to show up. The Artist is also a possibility.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball- Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zallian, Stan Charvin
Sorkin won last year, but this seems the best way to honor underdog Moneyball. The Descendants has the best chance of an upset, with its WGA win, and will probably win if Clooney is denied the best actor trophy with Academy's spread-the-wealth mentality.
Best Foreign-Language Film: A Seperation
These categories are impossible to read, so I'll go with the most heralded, but an upset is always possible (think "Pan's Labyrinth")
Best Documentary: Pina
Who knows? The best we're declared ineligible, so this is more of a "who cares" category.
Best Animated Feature: Chico and Rita
Not a banner year for feature-length animated features, and with even Pixar releasing a dud there's a possibility for the spanish production "Rita".
Techs
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Cinematography: The Artist (sorry, Lubezeki)
Best Costume Design: Hugo
Best Editing: The Artist
Best Makeup: Albert Nobbs
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: The Muppets
Best Sound Mixing: War Horse
Best Sound Editing: Drive (hey, why not)
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Basically, expect some possible provacation from Sacha Baron Cohen, funny but not particulary spicy jokes from Billy Crystal and an overlong ceremony that continues to remind us of the whole thing's irrelevance. Essentialy a lukewarm cocktail from the well that we regret the next morning but keep having anyway. I think I might celebrate the night by watching "Drive" again.
